The size question
Will 1,268 homes compete at resale?
The usual worry with a mega-development: when you sell, how many neighbours sell with you? So I counted the sales over the past year at four completed projects of more than 1,200 homes.
Homes sold in a year for every 100 in the project. URA caveat data, sub-sales and resales lodged Oct 2025 to Sep 2026, retrieved 25 Sep 2026. Caveats cover most but not all secondary sales. Scenario range applies the lowest and highest rate to 1,268 homes; it is not a forecast.
If Thomson Reserve turns over like these four, that is about 70 to 120 sales a year across 1,268 homes. The competition that matters is the few similar units listed in the same month as yours, which is why the unit mix further down matters more than the headline count.
Rules and supply
What changed since 2025
Three things that shape how a 2026 launch buyer gets in and, later, gets out.
Four years before SSD falls away
The holding period went from three years to four, with rates of 16%, 12%, 8% and 4% for each year held. It applies to private homes bought from that date.
For buyersSelling before completion now costs more. Someone buying at a 2026 launch clears the four years around the time the project is expected to complete, so an early wave of sub-sales is less likely than in past cycles.
9,320 confirmed private homes
The 2026 confirmed list is more than 50% above the 10-year annual average, according to URA.
For buyersMore launches are coming. Thomson Reserve will compete with new projects for buyers, not only with resales on Bright Hill Drive.
RCR flat, OCR up
Overall private prices rose 1.4% on the quarter. Non-landed homes in the Rest of Central Region rose 0.2%, while the Outside Central Region rose 2.2%.
For buyersRCR prices held level last quarter. A launch price well above nearby resale has to be justified by the product, not by a rising market.
SSD: Ministry of Finance, 3 Jul 2025. Land sales and price index: URA release of 1 Oct 2026 (flash estimates are revised when final figures are published).
The record
How mega-developments have done
Five projects of more than 1,000 homes. What buyers paid at launch, and what the same homes fetch today.
| Project | Homes | Launch avg psf | Median psf, last 12 months | Change | Sales, last 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JadeScapeShunfu · RCR · launched Sep 2018 | 1,206 | $1,700* | $2,355 | +39% | 65 |
| Parc EstaEunos · RCR · launched Nov 2018 | 1,399 | $1,680 | $2,298 | +37% | 103 |
| Grand DunmanDunman Road · RCR · launched Sep 2023 · under construction | 1,008 | $2,500 | $2,478 | −1% | 74 |
| Treasure at TampinesTampines · OCR · launched Mar 2019 | 2,203 | $1,336 | $1,799 | +35% | 123 |
| Parc ClematisClementi · OCR · launched Aug 2019 | 1,468 | $1,580 | $2,243 | +42% | 140 |
Launch averages: EdgeProp launch reports (*JadeScape: developer's announced average). Medians and sales: URA caveat data, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026, retrieved 25 Sep 2026. Grand Dunman's recent figure is mostly developer sales (71 new sale, 3 sub-sale), so it is not yet a resale result. Past results do not predict future returns.
Entry price mattered
At Parc Clematis, launch-day buyers paid about $1,580 psf. Buyers who bought from the developer in its last months paid a median $1,769 (316 sales), and their gain to today is much smaller.
Bigger layouts pulled ahead
At JadeScape, homes of 861 to 1,130 sq ft resold at a median $2,589 psf last year (10 sales). Homes under 646 sq ft fetched $1,991 (12 sales).
Profits were common, not certain
EdgeProp counted 273 profitable sub-sales and resales at Treasure at Tampines by April 2024, with none at a loss. 99.co later recorded one loss there, of S$238K.
The case study
Thomson Reserve on paper
Two numbers decide most of the outcome: what the land cost, and how many similar units sit side by side.
What the land cost, against nearby bids
Thomson Reserve's land cost S$434 psf ppr less than the Lorong Puntong bid of September 2026. The question is how much of that gap reaches the price list.
S$ psf ppr, top bid or sale price. EdgeProp (AMO Residence, Lentor Central, Lorong Puntong), Review Homes SG (Thomson View collective sale, contract Nov 2024, completed Jul 2025), URA GLS results (Upper Thomson Road Parcel A). A lower land rate gives the developer room on price; it does not oblige them to use it.
How the 1,268 homes split
More than half are two-bedders, and 416 of them share one 678 sq ft layout. Those owners may one day be selling the same home to the same buyer.
416 homes, one layout. The 678 sq ft two-bedroom premium makes up a third of the project. At JadeScape, smaller layouts resold at a far lower psf than family-sized ones last year.
Unit mix: StackedHomes, 28 Sep 2026, from the developer's published breakdown. Confirm against the official price list at preview.
Working in its favour
- A fresh 99-year lease on the former Thomson View site.
- About 200 m to Upper Thomson MRT on the Thomson-East Coast Line.
- Bright Hill becomes an interchange when Cross Island Line Phase 1 opens, targeted for 2030 (LTA).
- Land below recent nearby bids, from S$1,278 at Lentor Central to S$1,612 at Lorong Puntong.
- Ai Tong School within 1 km. Check the current boundary for your block.
Working against it
- Many similar homes. 716 two-bedders, 416 of them one layout.
- A long wait. Published T.O.P estimates range from 2030 to 2032.
- A cheaper neighbour. Thomson Three, on the same street, resells at a median $2,152 psf.
- No price list yet. The developer had not released prices as at 6 Oct 2026.
- More supply coming. The 2026 land sales add 9,320 confirmed homes islandwide.
Other routes
Same area, three routes
What buyers are paying for comparable homes nearby today. This is the yardstick Thomson Reserve's price list will be measured against.
Median psf, URA caveat data, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026, retrieved 25 Sep 2026: Thomson Three resale (25 sales), JadeScape resale (65), AMO Residence sub-sales (34), RCR new sales (2,787).
Thomson Reserve
- Entry
- Price list pending
- Move in
- After T.O.P, estimated 2030 to 2032
- Suits
- Buyers who can wait and want a fresh lease beside the MRT
Thomson Three & JadeScape
- Entry
- Median $2,152 to $2,355 psf
- Move in
- Now
- Suits
- Upgraders who need to sell and buy close together
AMO Residence
- Entry
- Sub-sale median $2,525 psf
- Move in
- Sooner, on a newer lease
- Suits
- Buyers who want a known product at a known price
Is this you?
Questions buyers bring to us
"Is a two-bedder a safe first step when there are 716 of them?"
Answered in questions 02 and 03"Can I time selling my flat around a completion that's years away?"
Answered in question 06"Should I buy in now, or wait and buy a resale unit nearby?"
Answered in question 05"Who buys this unit from me, and how many others will be selling?"
Answered in questions 03 and 04Inside the hour
Six questions, answered
One hour on the numbers, then your own questions.
Entry
What does S$1,178 land mean for price?
From land cost to a break-even range, set against AMO Residence and the Lorong Puntong bid.
Which unit types held up best?
Layout-by-layout resale results at JadeScape, Parc Esta and Parc Clematis.
Exit
How many neighbours sell with you?
Turnover, the unit mix and how many identical units could be listed beside yours.
Who buys your unit later?
The likely exit buyer for each bedroom type, and what they will compare you against.
Judgement
When is resale the better buy?
Thomson Reserve against Thomson Three, JadeScape and AMO Residence on one scale.
What does the SSD change mean for you?
Holding period, financing and the sell-then-buy sequence for upgraders.
Bring the unit you're weighing. We'll put it through the same checks live.
Your speaker
· CEA
- Every figure in the session comes from URA caveat data and published land results, with the date beside it.
- You leave with the comparison, not a sales pitch.
From past attendees
What buyers have said
Sample review — replace before go-live
Sample review — replace before go-live
Sample review — replace before go-live
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